Minority Rule

The US Senate is many things, but it is not a democratic institution. Every state gets 2 votes, regardless of population. If the 52 senators from the 26 least populous states joined hands they would control the Senate despite the fact that they represent only 18 percent of the American population.

The Word of the Day is "seigniorage"

After two bellyflops, Congress is considering a dollar coin again. This time it might actually work. http://money.cnn.com/2005/04/27/pf/new_dollar/

Why the push for dollar coins? The nominal argument is that it would save the Mint a mint. Paper money doesn't last long. Coins do. Believe it or not, the savings add up to billions over the long hall.

In this new push, however, the motivation is the seigniorage. That delectable word refers to the difference between the cost of producing a coin (or stamp) and its face value (its selling price.) Seigniorage happens when money is lost or put into collections.

Consider the very successful State's Quarters program. It costs the Mint less than five cents for each 25-cent piece it produces. The government makes money whenever someone "buys" a coin then chooses not to spend it. The Treasury estimates that it has earned about $5 billion in seigniorage profits from the quarters so far.

So the new dollar coins are an attempt to cash in on this phenomon.

But this begs a larger question about our currency. Why are we using the 4 coins and 6 bills currently in widespread distriubtion (if you include the $50 bill?)

The last time we kicked out a coin for being too "cheap" was the half cent which was retired in 1857. Note, the actual story of retired coins is a bit more complicated.

So, for almost 150 years a penny has been the smallest denominated coin. In that time a penny has lost 95% of its value. That is, what cost 1 cent in 1857 now costs 20.5 cents. A dime back then bought what $2.05 buys now.

Here is the cost of each coin, the seigniorage for each, and the margin the Mint makes on each.

Coin	Cost	Face	Seigniorage	Margin
Dollar	10	100	90	900.00%
Quarter	4.25	25	20.75	488.24%
Dime	1.9	10	8.1	426.32%
Nickel	3.1	5	1.9	61.29%
Penny	0.8	1	0.2	25%

The conclusion is obvious. Lose the nickel and penny. Make the dime the smallest value coin, which is worth almost exactly what the half penny was worth when it was phased out.

Independent Trials, Gambling and Human Behavior

Some years ago a smart casino owner added a “tracking board” to roulette wheels. This shows the numbers that most recently “hit.” When red came up several times in a row, players increased their betting on black. After all, red can’t keep coming up. Apparently no indictments were brought down for violating the law of independent trials which says that previous spins of the wheel have absolutely no impact on future outcomes. For an interesting take on trying to win against roulette see this book: http://tinyurl.com/a9nbj

Why are we so influenced by a previous result that has no predictive value?

It seems that human beings have a deep need to search out patterns and assign causality to random events.

I wonder if this isn’t hardwired into our neurology. One of the things that living things are really good at is pattern recognition. Arguably it is our advanced pattern recognition abilities that define “humanness.” We make our way through life by identifying patterns and acting on those insights. Perhaps it’s not a surprise that we go overboard and find relationships where none actually exist.

Talk amongst yourselves. I'll provide the topic:

Was Nixon the last liberal president? If you can overlook the whole Watergate, attack on the constitution thing it is interesting to look at the record:

1: Ended Vietnam War (ok, he made it worse first, but still)
2: Established EPA
3: Began normalizing relations with "Red" China (as opposed to "fake little island government likes to call itself" China),
4: Oversaw actual desegregation of schools in the South
5: Supported the ERA (Speaking of the ladies, did you know that Pat Nixon's original name was Thelma Ryan?)
6: Signed the Clean Air Act
7: Raised taxes and established a revenue sharing system which redirected funds to the state and municipal levels.
8: Expanded Head Start program
9: Expanded Social Security benefits
10: Pressed for detente with the Soviet Union
11: Imposed a wage price freeze. Simultaneously he removed the United States from the gold standard. The freeze was replaced by complex system of wage price controls. Hardly a free market crusader!
12: Signed the ABM treaty
13: Supported affirmative action

I know the election is over, and Bush actually won this time, but....

From Colin Powell's Memior:

"I particularly condemn the way our political leaders supplied the manpower for that war. The policies - determining who would be drafted and who would be deferred, who would serve and who would escape, who would die and who would live - were an anti-democratic disgrace. I can never forgive a leadership that said in effect: These young men - poorer, less educated, less privileged - are expendable (someone described them as economic cannon fodder), but the rest are too good to risk. I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful and well-placed and so many professional athletes (who were probably healthier than any of us) managed to wangle slots in Reserve and National Guard units. Of the many tragedies of Vietnam, this raw class discrimination strikes me as the most damaging to the ideal that all Americans are created equal and owe equal allegiance to their country."

Powell was a smart guy before he became W's bitch.

A Technology Whose Time has Come

I was riding home on the F Market trolley line sitting near a woman engaged in a fairly loud cell phone conversation. I realized that it was not the fact that she was sharing her conversation that bothered me. It was that the conversation was SO inane. It's one thing to arrange a meeting place, remind someone to pickup milk, or otherwise use the technology to do something useful. Conversations of the "what's up? Not much. What's doin'? I don't know, maybe get a burrito...." don't belong in the public sphere.

See the link for a solution?

http://www.cell-block-r.com/

What to do when hungry in NY

I just got back from a quick business trip to New York. Living in San Francisco we are not deprived of much in the way of food choices. However, there are a few tasty items that are better eaten East of the Hudson. Here are my favs:

Black and White cookies
Knishes (potato and kasha)
Pizza by the slice
Cannoli
Yo0hoo (available elsewhere but not in the small glass bottles)
Chuckles
Cheescake
Corned Beef with Dr. Browns Black Cherry soda (preferably at the 2nd Ave Deli)
bagels
Calzone
Biali (for an interesting book on this bagel relative by the NY Times food writer see http://tinyurl.com/afu3e)
Dunkin Donuts

Any other thoughts?

Moo?

Ok, a grown female is a mare. A grown male is a stallion, or if castrated, a gelding. Young females are fillies and young males are colts.

What is the common name of the animal? A horse (of course, of course)

Try this one:

A grown female is a cow. A grown male is a bull, or if castrated a steer. Breeds include Angus and Hereford.

What is the common name of this animal?