Independent Trials, Gambling and Human Behavior

Some years ago a smart casino owner added a “tracking board” to roulette wheels. This shows the numbers that most recently “hit.” When red came up several times in a row, players increased their betting on black. After all, red can’t keep coming up. Apparently no indictments were brought down for violating the law of independent trials which says that previous spins of the wheel have absolutely no impact on future outcomes. For an interesting take on trying to win against roulette see this book: http://tinyurl.com/a9nbj

Why are we so influenced by a previous result that has no predictive value?

It seems that human beings have a deep need to search out patterns and assign causality to random events.

I wonder if this isn’t hardwired into our neurology. One of the things that living things are really good at is pattern recognition. Arguably it is our advanced pattern recognition abilities that define “humanness.” We make our way through life by identifying patterns and acting on those insights. Perhaps it’s not a surprise that we go overboard and find relationships where none actually exist.